Sugary drink taxes have been adopted in several U.S. jurisdictions as a public health strategy to curb sugar consumption and improve dietary behaviors. Research on the impact of these taxes on grocery stores purchases attribute sugary drink taxes to an estimated 15% decrease in sales. However, whether this translates to an impact in restaurant sales has not been well studied.

Researchers analyzed six years of sales data (2015–2020) from more than 7,300 Taco Bell locations nationwide, focusing on drive‑through purchases. The study compared beverage calories per transaction at 60 restaurants across five jurisdictions with sugary drink taxes—Albany, California; Cook County, Illinois; Oakland, California; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Seattle, Washington—with a matched group of similar restaurants in areas without such taxes.

Overall, the analysis found no significant association between sugary drink taxes and beverage calories per transaction, suggesting that sugary drink taxes of this size or alone may not substantially reduce beverage calorie consumption in fast food restaurant settings.

The authors note that consumer behavior in restaurants—such as choosing combo meals or prioritizing convenience—may limit the effectiveness of these policies.

Elbel adds, “Using millions of transactions from six years of sales data, we found that sugary beverage taxes did not influence beverage calories when implemented in five cities in the U.S.”

Rummo notes, “These results suggest that sugary drink taxes may not be effective in reducing beverage calorie consumption in fast food restaurants, as compared to supermarkets. This could be because the sizes of sugary drink taxes in the U.S. are too small for consumers or that they just aren’t responsive to price changes in these settings, among other reasons.”

In your coverage, please use this URL to provide access to the freely available paper in PLOS Medicine: https://plos.io/4sFufx5

Citation: Rummo PE, Echenique JA, Wu E, Mijanovich T, Desai SM, Bragg MA, et al. (2026) Impact of sugary drink taxes on beverage calories purchased in a national fast food restaurant chain: A quasi-experimental study. PLoS Med 23(4): e1004642. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004642

Author countries: United States of America

Funding: This work was supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health, grant number 5R01HL147474 (PER, JAE, EW, TM, SM, MAB, BCW, BE). The funder had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Taco Bell was aware of the research question before agreeing to data sharing but did not sponsor this study and had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

The findings published online on Jan. 30 in JAMA Network analyzed advertisements transmitted during televised NFL games in the U.S. to assess the nutritional content by serving.

The study found that store-bought foods and quick-service restaurants advertised during NFL games, the most watched sporting events in the U.S., were frequently high in sodium, calories, and fat content.

The paper, “Salt and Nutritional Content of Foods Advertised During Televised Professional Football Games,” was first authored by Lara Al-Zoubaidi, a third-year nutrition student at SLU’s Doisy College of Health Sciences. Al-Zoubaidi was a part of the research team led by senior author Paul J. Hauptman, M.D., dean of the University of Nevada, Reno School of Medicine.

The observational study looked at the impact of advertising and paid sponsorships on consumer behavior and meal option selections on adults with heart failure, coronary artery disease, hypertension, diabetes and kidney failure.

“The thing that surprised me most was how normalized these ads and paid promotions were, and there weren’t any regulations on how much people could view them,” Al-Zoubaidi said.

Researchers discovered that excess dietary intake is frequent due to ingesting processed and prepared foods, including those from high-volume restaurants or other food establishments. They also reported that excess fat and caloric intake may influence the natural history of coronary artery disease, diabetes, and other conditions.

The presentation in each commercial determined individual serving sizes. The nutritional content of each food item was determined from each company’s website.  Researchers said the combination of extended viewing times and poor dietary choices may be maladaptive for both primary and secondary prevention of multiple chronic cardiovascular and other conditions.

The findings suggest clinicians should counsel individuals with prevalent conditions about limiting dietary sodium intake of most foods advertised during NFL games, which may improve symptoms and quality of life.

“This study was geared towards physicians to raise awareness around what their patients are consuming and empower them to take control of their health,” Al-Zoubaidi said.

Other authors include Nadya Vinsdata, University of Nevada School of Medicine, Reno, and R. Eric Heidel, Ph.D., Department of Surgery at the University of Tennessee Graduate School of Medicine.

About Saint Louis University 

Founded in 1818, Saint Louis University is one of the nation’s oldest and most prestigious Catholic institutions. Rooted in Jesuit values and its pioneering history as the first university west of the Mississippi River, SLU offers more than 15,200 students a rigorous, transformative education of the whole person. At the core of the University’s diverse community of scholars is SLU’s service-focused mission, which challenges and prepares students to make the world a better, more just place.